Clarke, Ben, Harrington, Luke J, Keeping, Theodore, Alessi, Marc, Thorne, Peter and Otto, Friederike E L (2026) Hazard hexagons: the influence of anthropogenic climate change on extremes in regions globally. Environmental Research: Climate. pp. 1-48. ISSN 2752-5295
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Abstract
The sixth assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented regional summaries of the scientific knowledge of changing weather extremes and the human influence upon this. The hexagon figures, found in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM), were a key part of this presentation. They provided clear visual overviews of this understanding on three hazard types (hot extremes, heavy precipitation and agricultural and ecological drought) for policymakers, scientists and communicators alike. We have shown that since 2021, when AR6 was published, there has been a rapid advancement in knowledge of changing extremes on the timescale of individual years, with a greater than doubling in the number of extreme event and trend attribution studies coupled with advances in methodologies, rising levels of anthropogenic forcing, and a growing sample of manifested extreme events. The coming seventh assessment report (AR7) is an opportunity to update and iterate these figures, expand to other hazard types and, we argue, to facilitate more regular updates in line with this rapidly advancing field of knowledge. To this end, we have updated the AR6 hexagons in several ways: we have added evidence levels to the figures to provide additional information without sacrificing visual clarity; we have built on the AR6 regional synthesis process with a step-by-step procedure and accompanying expert guidance and discussion; we have applied this to six illustrative regional case studies for heavy precipitation; we have updated the evidence tables and figures directly for hot extremes and heavy precipitation.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Authors Ben Clarke, Theodore Keeping and Friederike Otto receive funding from the Bezos Earth Foundation. |
| Keywords: | Hazard Hexagons; anthropogenic climate change; extremes; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 21933 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1088/2752-5295/aeaf75 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Oct 2026 15:47 |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Environmental Research: Climate |
| Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Related URLs: | |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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