Bastola, Satish, Murphy, Conor and Sweeney, John (2011) Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8. pp. 5891-5915. ISSN 1027-5606
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Abstract
Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment.
The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from
observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators
are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet,
average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data
sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement
from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate
flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the
three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators
identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry
climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in
the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation
is less than 10% of the data used for calibration.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | hydrological model parameters; changed climatic conditions; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 3038 |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/hessd-8-5891-2011 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 27 Jan 2012 15:01 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions |
Publisher: | European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/3038 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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