Fay, Damien and Ringwood, John (2010) On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 25 (3). pp. 1751-1758. ISSN 0885-8950
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Abstract
Weather information is an important factor in load
forecasting models. Typically, load forecasting models are constructed
and tested using actual weather readings. However,
online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of
weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. These
weather forecast errors inevitably lead to a degradation in model
performance. This is an important factor in load forecasting but
has not been widely examined in the literature. The main aim
of this paper is to present a novel technique for minimizing the
consequences of this degradation. In addition, a supplementary
technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect
current accuracy.
The proposed technique utilizes a combination of forecasts from
several load forecasting models (sub-models). The parameter estimation
may thus be split into two parts: sub-model and combination
parameter estimation. It is shown that the lowest PMSE corresponds
to training the sub-models with actual weather but training
the combiner with forecast weather.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Load forecasting; model combination; neural networks; weather forecast errors; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Electronic Engineering |
Item ID: | 3618 |
Depositing User: | Professor John Ringwood |
Date Deposited: | 01 May 2012 14:18 |
Journal or Publication Title: | IEEE Transactions on Power Systems |
Publisher: | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/3618 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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