Sheenan, Lisa (2014) Four Essays Investigating the U.S. Subprime Mortgage-Backed Securities Market. PhD thesis, National University of Ireland Maynooth.
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Abstract
The U.S. subprime mortgage-backed securities market has attracted intense attention
during and after the widespread financial turmoil of 2007-2009. Most commentators
have reached a consensus that an underestimation of the risks associated with these
products led to problems for the entire financial system. Therefore, this thesis seeks to
provide a better understanding of these complex financial instruments and their role
in the propagation of the crisis.
We focus on three main issues. The first issue (Chapter 3) analyses the risk factors
underlying this market. The goal is to identify key variables that may potentially
explain its decline. Measures of the U.S. real estate market, interbank liquidity and
counterparty risk, as well as market volatility are all found to play a role. Furthermore,
we find that the importance of these risk factors changed as the crisis evolved from a
real estate problem to a broader global credit crisis.
The second issue (Chapter 4) concerns identifying interdependencies and contagion
within this market during the crisis. We adapt the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework
of Longstaff (2010) to estimate the intra-market relationships using a spliced
ABX dataset and two traded ABX vintages. We find contagious effects during the
subprime crisis, emanating mainly from shocks to the higher-rated assets.
Finally, the third issue (Chapters 5 & 6) examines contagion from the subprime
mortgage-backed securities market to several other asset markets using both the original
and an extended version of Longstaff's (2010) VAR framework. Using the original
specifcation, evidence of contagion is found but we uncover important differences between
the choice of index used to proxy for the subprime mortgage-backed securities
market. Furthermore, employing a more innovative econometric tool, namely a timevarying
transition probability Markov-switching VAR, shows that although contagion
played a role in transmitting the shock to other markets, it may not have been as
prevalent as suggested by the original VAR framework. We conclude that accurately
dating the crisis is crucial to the analysis.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) |
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Keywords: | U.S. Subprime Mortgage-Backed Securities Market; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting |
Item ID: | 4995 |
Depositing User: | IR eTheses |
Date Deposited: | 03 Jun 2014 16:38 |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/4995 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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