Wosser, Michael (2015) Long Run Macroeconomic and Sectoral Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises. Working Paper. National University of Ireland Maynooth. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
In a panel comprising 61 countries covering the years 1980-2010 we show that macroeconomic variables such as GDP and real-interest rates lose potency as systemic banking crisis determinants when estimated over a full business cycle and that the choice of panel time-span is of high relevance. Using a shorter panel (1998-2011) involving 75 countries, we show that sectoral variables such as Bank Z-Score, private-credit-to-GDP ratio, bank credit-to-deposit ratio and non-performing loan levels represent an improved model-fit over their macroeconomic-focused counterparts, yielding improved in-sample crisis predictions. Whereas sectoral-centric models may over-estimate the likelihood of systemic banking crises this does not constitute a model weakness if not overlooking embryonic crises is the key objective. Future research is facilitated via the establishment of a control cluster of determinants with both sectoral as well as macroeconomic constituents.
Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
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Keywords: | Systemic Banking Crises; Determinants; Sectoral variables; Stability; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting |
Item ID: | 6637 |
Depositing User: | Ms Sandra Doherty |
Date Deposited: | 07 Dec 2015 14:10 |
Publisher: | National University of Ireland Maynooth |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/6637 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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