Murphy, Conor, Broderick, Ciaran, Burt, Timothy P., Curley, Mary, Duffy, Catriona, Hall, Julia, Harrigan, Shaun, Matthews, Tom K.R., Mcdonald, Neil, McCarthy, Gerard, McCarthy, Mark P., Mullan, Donal, Noone, Simon, Osborn, Timothy J., Ryan, Ciara, Sweeney, John, Thorne, Peter, Walsh, Seamus and Wilby, Robert L. (2018) A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016). Climate of the Past, 14. pp. 413-440. ISSN 1814-9332
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Abstract
A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly
rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland.
The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured
rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come
from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not
published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by
comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions
of precipitation, temperature and circulation
indices from across the British–Irish Isles. Strong decadal
consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is
evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series.
Annually, the most recent decade (2006–2015) is found
to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably
too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency
with other long-term observations strengthens confidence
from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably
wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period
of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia
and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England
Temperature record – all consistent with a strongly positive
phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet
summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (treering)
reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region.
Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation
is much larger than previously thought, while relationships
with key modes of climate variability are time-variant.
The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multicentennial
trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing)
seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties
in the early winter record, the former finding should be
regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest
continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding
multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability
in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other
long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation
of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases
the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in
further regions.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | 305-year; continuous monthly rainfall series; Ireland; 1711–2016; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 9352 |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/cp-14-413-2018 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 11 Apr 2018 13:35 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Climate of the Past |
Publisher: | European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/9352 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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