Official URL: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/loi/14778696

The ‘going’ at a race meeting, that is the condition of the ground, is as much a part of horse racing as are the horse and jockey taking part in the race. The going, determined principally by antecedent weather conditions, is such an important consideration that it can explain the difference between a horse winning and losing a, perhaps very lucrative, race. At present, the clerk of the course declares the condition of the ground on the morning of a meeting. This can be too late for many owners and trainers, since the ground may not suit their horses - leading them to be withdrawn and the owner highly penalised. During warm summers in Britain, for example in 1995 and 1996, extra firm ground resulted in the depletion of entrants at several race meetings. In contrast, a trainer may find on other occasions that the going is unexpectedly favourable and would be willing to pay a late entry fee for a race. With an ability to forecast, with some degree of confidence, what the going will be, even a day or two before a meeting, a trainer might improve his/ her chances of selecting appropriate ‘horses for courses’ as well as minimising unnecessary financial outlays for the stable and owner concerned. In a wider context, currently there is an expectation that increases in winter rainfall and decreases in summer rainfall will occur in association with the enhanced greenhouse effect (Hulme and Barrow 1997). Such changes would further increase the likelihood of adverse going in both these seasons and render forecasts of the going even more valuable than they are at present.