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    Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

    Bethke, Ingo and Outten, Stephen and Ottera, Odd Helge and Hawkins, Ed and Wagner, Sebastian and Sigl, Michael and Thorne, Peter (2017) Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 7. pp. 799-805. ISSN 1758-678X

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    Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climatevariability. Most model projections of the twenty-first century,however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not repre-senting the range of plausible eruption scenarios. Here,we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistentwith ice-core records5, impact climate variability projections ofthe Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)under RCP4.(ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climatevariability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become∼50%more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming.Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-icevariability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence. These results highlight theimportance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertaintyin future climate assessments.

    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Climate and Earth system modelling; Climate-change impacts; Projection and prediction; Potential volcanic impacts; future climate variability;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 10797
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: Peter Thorne
    Date Deposited: 20 May 2019 17:10
    Journal or Publication Title: Nature Climate Change
    Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
    Refereed: Yes
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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