Bethke, Ingo, Outten, Stephen, Ottera, Odd Helge, Hawkins, Ed, Wagner, Sebastian, Sigl, Michael and Thorne, Peter (2017) Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 7. pp. 799-805. ISSN 1758-678X
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Abstract
Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climatevariability. Most model projections of the twenty-first century,however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not repre-senting the range of plausible eruption scenarios. Here,we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistentwith ice-core records5, impact climate variability projections ofthe Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)under RCP4.(ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climatevariability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become∼50%more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming.Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-icevariability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence. These results highlight theimportance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertaintyin future climate assessments.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Climate and Earth system modelling; Climate-change impacts; Projection and prediction; Potential volcanic impacts; future climate variability; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 10797 |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate3394 |
Depositing User: | Peter Thorne |
Date Deposited: | 20 May 2019 17:10 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Climate Change |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10797 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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