Matthews, T, Wilby, R L and Murphy, Conor (2019) An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard. Nature Climate Change, 9. pp. 602-606. ISSN 1758-678X
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Abstract
Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events)1
. Here we
evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major
tropical cyclones (TCs)—a combination with serious potential
consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful
TCs2
, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning3
. We show
that ‘TC–heat’ events are already possible along densely
populated coastlines globally but, to date, only an estimated
1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number
could rise markedly with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a world 2 °C warmer than
pre-industrial times. Using analogues as focusing events we
show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh
cyclone occurred with 2 °C global warming, there would be
>70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research
highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare
for an emerging TC–heat compound hazard.
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | emerging; tropical cyclone; deadly heat; compound hazard; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 13845 |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jan 2021 12:25 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Climate Change |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/13845 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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