Cahill, Niamh and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Parnell, Andrew (2015) Change points of global temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 10. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Change points; global temperature;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics
Item ID:	14571
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002
Depositing User:	Niamh Cahill
Date Deposited:	29 Jun 2021 15:58
Journal or Publication Title:	Environmental Research Letters
Publisher:	IOP Publishing
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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