O'Brennan, John (2008) Ireland & the Lisbon Treaty: Quo Vadis? CEPS Policy Brief (175). pp. 1-13.
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Abstract
The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the electorate
on 12 June 2008 has presented the Irish government
with the most serious crisis in external relations
since the Second World War. This was the third
such referendum on Europe held in Ireland since the
millennium and the second plebiscite in three to
result in a rejection of an EU Treaty following the
failed Nice poll in 2001. There is no obvious
solution to the dilemma the government faces and
no obvious pathway to achieve ratification. There is
however a clear consensus amongst the political
parties that ratification constitutes both a clear
political priority and a fundamental national interest.
At the October European Council summit in
Brussels, Taoiseach Brian Cowen promised to come
back to the December meeting “with a view to our
defining together the elements of a solution and a
common path to follow”.1 But the external context is
now clear – EU leaders indicated an unwillingness
to re-negotiate any part of the Treaty: it will be up to
Ireland to find an Irish solution to this European
problem. Thus the opportunity cost of the No vote
has become somewhat clearer: Ireland faces
marginalisation and isolation in Europe if a solution
to the Lisbon dilemma is not found. The domestic
context is also somewhat clearer now that we have
access to extensive data that sheds light on the
reasons for the No vote in the 12 June poll. In
assessing the options for ratification this paper
draws upon that data, presented in among other
sources, the post-referendum Eurobarometer survey and the government-commissioned Millward Brown
IMS research findings.2
Any course of action that involves another
referendum campaign implies significant risks for
the Irish government and for Ireland’s position
within the European Union. The principal danger
here lies in the continuing knowledge deficit
regarding EU affairs: fully 42% of respondents
polled by Millward Brown cited a “lack of
knowledge/information/understanding” as their
reason for voting No to Lisbon.3 But the threat to
Ireland’s national interests, to the country’s longterm
economic prosperity and international relations
are very grave and now necessitate the most
substantive engagement by political actors. This
paper seeks to contribute to the debate on
ratification and to provide policy-makers with an
assessment of the options before them. Before
proceeding to outline those options it sets out four
key assumptions upon which the arguments made
are based. It also outlines the importance of securing
a clarification of the constitutional position via a
Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of the
Lisbon Treaty and the desirability of finding EU
agreement on the right of all 27 member states to
permanent representation on the European
Commission.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Ireland; Lisbon Treaty; referendum; EU; Europeand Union; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Sociology |
Item ID: | 2878 |
Depositing User: | John O'Brennan |
Date Deposited: | 07 Dec 2011 16:23 |
Journal or Publication Title: | CEPS Policy Brief |
Publisher: | Centre for European Policy Studies |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/2878 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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