Kemp, Andrew C., Cahill, Niamh, Engelhart, Simon E., Hawkes, Andrea D. and Wang, Kelin (2018) Revising Estimates of Spatially Variable Subsidence during the A.D. 1700 Cascadia Earthquake Using a Bayesian Foraminiferal Transfer Function. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108 (2). pp. 654-673. ISSN 0037-1106
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Abstract
Coseismic subsidence along the Cascadia subduction zone causes abrupt
relative sea-level (RSL) rise that is recorded in coastal stratigraphy and foraminiferal
assemblages. RSL reconstructions therefore provide insight into the magnitude,
nature, and frequency of great earthquakes that can constrain deformation models and
quantify the seismic risk faced by coastal populations. These reconstructions are commonly generated using transfer functions that are calibrated from counts of modern
(surface) foraminifera and corresponding elevation measurements. We developed four
transfer functions of increasing complexity to explore how and why the composition
of the modern dataset and the choice of transfer-function type affects subsidence
reconstructions. Application of these four models to stratigraphic contacts (mud
abruptly overlying peat or soil) representing the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake
and a field experiment that simulated subsidence show that a Bayesian transfer function (BTF) calibrated using a large modern dataset (19 sites from California to
Vancouver Island) and incorporating prior information from stratigraphic context produces systematically larger subsidence estimates than a weighted-averaging transfer
function calibrated using a smaller modern dataset (8 sites in Oregon) that does not
leverage stratigraphic context. This difference arises from (1) training set composition,
(2) taxa–elevation relationships in the BTF that are not assumed to be unimodal, and
(3) stratigraphic prior information that compensates for postdepositional, downward
mixing of postearthquake foraminifera into pre-earthquake sediment, which biases
reconstructions at some sites toward smaller subsidence. Our reconstructions support
a heterogeneous rupture model for the A.D. 1700 earthquake, but indicate that slip
estimates in patches from Alsea Bay to Netarts Bay (Oregon) and from Netarts Bay to
Vancouver Island should be increased.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Revising Estimates; Spatially Variable Subsidence; A.D. 1700; Cascadia Earthquake; Bayesian Foraminiferal; Transfer Function; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics |
Item ID: | 16097 |
Identification Number: | 10.1785/0120170269 |
Depositing User: | Niamh Cahill |
Date Deposited: | 14 Jun 2022 14:29 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
Publisher: | Seismological Society of America |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/16097 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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