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    Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market


    Moore, Michael J. and Roche, Maurice J. (2002) Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market. Journal of International Economics, 58 (2). pp. 387-411. ISSN 0022-1996

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    Abstract

    The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The ‘puzzles’ in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.
    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Artificial economy; Forward foreign exchange; Habit persistence;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting
    Item ID: 20619
    Identification Number: 10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00171-4
    Depositing User: IR Editor
    Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2025 10:48
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of International Economics
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    Related URLs:
    URI: https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/20619
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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