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    Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian modelling and spatial statistics


    Pourshir Sefidi, Niloufar (2025) Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian modelling and spatial statistics. PhD thesis, National University of Ireland Maynooth.

    Abstract

    The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has reshaped public health, societal behaviors, and governance on an unprecedented scale. Its rapid global spread, coupled with its profound health and social impacts, necessitated swift and diverse responses, ranging from non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns to large-scale vaccination campaigns. This thesis investigates three interconnected aspects of the pandemic, each offering critical insights into its health, societal, and policy impacts, while addressing key knowledge gaps that have implications for managing future global health crises. The first part of this research focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies in Ireland, a country characterized by its distinct county-based public health system. By developing and applying a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Regression model, this study examines the impact of lockdown measures and vaccination rates on overall mortality. The results highlight that stringent public health interventions, implemented at varying levels across counties, were instrumental in reducing COVID-19- related deaths. The analysis also quantifies the number of lives saved by these measures, offering robust evidence for the importance of timely and localized responses to public health emergencies. These findings not only provide actionable insights for optimizing Ireland’s public health framework but also offer lessons for other nations in refining their pandemic preparedness and response strategies. The second part of the thesis investigates the long-term health consequences of the pandemic, with a focus on its impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data from 26 European countries and a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model, the study reveals a 20% increase in the risk of CVD following COVID-19 infection, particularly among older adults and individuals with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease, and obesity. These findings underscore the need for integrated public health strategies that address both infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases during and beyond pandemics. The analysis also highlights regional disparities in the pandemic’s cardiovascular impacts, emphasizing the importance of tailored interventions to mitigate the long-term health burdens exacerbated by COVID-19. The third component examines how the pandemic disrupted societal norms and influenced crime trends with an analysis of this for crimes in England and Wales. Leveraging spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling and crime data from local authorities, the study investigates the relationship between lockdown measures and shifts in crime patterns. The findings reveal significant decreases in residential burglary and vehicle theft during lockdown periods, while crimes such as anti-social behavior and drug-related offenses increased, driven by heightened social tensions and altered community dynamics. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of how public health measures influenced criminal behavior and offers practical recommendations for integrating crime prevention strategies into pandemic responses. Collectively, this thesis provides a multidimensional exploration of the COVID- 19 pandemic’s impact, combining advanced statistical modeling with spatiotemporal analyses to offer novel insights into its health, societal, and policy dimensions. By addressing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, the long-term health impacts, and the societal disruptions caused by the pandemic, this research contributes to the broader understanding of pandemic management. It offers evidence-based recommendations to inform future public health strategies, ensuring better preparedness and resilience for global health crises to come. Overall, our work demonstrates that advanced statistical models and spatial statistics are a robust set of tools for application to real-world problems. The work presented here in this thesis provides a strong argument for their application to other types of problems with an inherently statistical characteristics.
    Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
    Keywords: Understanding the impact; COVID-19 pandemic; Bayesian modelling; spatial statistics;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute
    Item ID: 21375
    Depositing User: IR eTheses
    Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2026 10:32
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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