Corbet, Shaen (2012) Quantifying the effects of new derivative introduction on exchange volatility, efficiency and liquidity. PhD thesis, National University of Ireland Maynooth.
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Abstract
This thesis investigates the effects of the introduction of new financial derivative products on
exchange volatility, efficiency and liquidity. The derivatives under primary investigation are
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Contracts for Difference (CFDs). These products offer a
cheap, tax-efficient and speedy method for increasing or decreasing market exposure to price
changes in the related primary asset. By facilitating faster and shorter-term trading, these
products may increase market liquidity and/or increase market volatility for the related
primary asset. The thesis builds a cross-country database of new-derivative-markets opening
dates, and investigates the key features of prices and returns for related primary assets before
and after the opening of these derivative markets. The database covers 16 countries in the
CFD investigation, 21 commodity markets in the ETF investigation, and related data as
available (daily closing prices, trading volumes, bid-ask quotes) in each of them. The key
price and return features investigated include bid-ask spreads, trading volumes (both of
derivatives and related primary assets), and daily return autocorrelation, variance, skewness
and kurtosis.
This thesis also considers a separate, but related, research problem. It extends and empirically
applies a liquidity-indicator model for the Eurozone created by the Bank of England (BOE)
and developed further by the European Central Bank (ECB) by including commodity
liquidity, and uses this extended model to investigate shifting investor behaviour based on
changing market dynamics. Similar to the investigation of the CDF and EFT markets, this
investigation is concerned with market stability and liquidity in a changed environment (in
this case, the key change is the introduction of the euro currency).
Chapter one contains an introduction to the main hypotheses regarding the effects of the
introduction of new derivatives on securities markets, and the empirical methods used to test
these hypotheses. This chapter also describes the two investment products which are the main
focus, CFDs and ETFs, and their particular potential impacts on market-specific
characteristics such as volatility, efficiency and liquidity.
Chapter two empirically investigates the impact of CFDs on market liquidity and volatility.
CFDs have existed for less than twenty years and the CFD market grew rapidly prior to the
recent international financial crisis. This chapter empirically examines the roles that CFDs
have played, either as an accelerant for mispricing in international equity markets away from
fundamental values, or as a source of increased market efficiency through the addition of new
liquidity. This chapter uses GARCH and EGARCH models to test for the impact of CFDs on
the return volatility and autocorrelation of the underlying security. In the case of Australia,
the analysis is applied to individual securities. In the other 15 countries investigated in this
chapter, the analysis is applied at the level of the market index. The chapter also investigates
whether the stylised characteristics of CFDs are more or less pronounced in low liquidity
exchanges. This chapter finds that CFDs appear to have influenced asset-specific variance
and return autocorrelation. Some tentative explanations for these findings are offered. The
presence of bid and ask-price ‘overhangs’ associated with CFD trading cannot be rejected
and may be associated with observed volatility reductions in some jurisdictions.
Following the analysis based on CFDs in chapter two, ETFs are the primary focus of chapter
three. ETFs have existed since the late 1980s, but were first traded on commodity markets in
the early 2000s. Their inception has been linked by some market analysts with the large
growth in commodity market volatility seen in recent years. This chapter directly tests this
link. The chapter also investigates whether the stylised characteristics of ETFs are more or
less pronounced in larger commodity markets than in smaller markets. The results indicate
that larger ETFs in terms of their assets under management at their dates of inception, are
associated with higher volatility. Smaller commodity markets are found to have increased
efficiency after the introduction of ETFs, indicating that there are some benefits from new
ETF investment in markets below $4 to $5 billion in size, but the associated caveat is that of
increased volatility, indicative of potential pitfalls in the ETF portfolio rebalancing process. It
appears that ETFs have made commodity markets more efficient through a new influx of
trading counterparties, but they appear to be associated with a cost. The need for regulation of
investment size and market ownership limits therefore cannot be rejected.
Chapters two and three look at two particular new instruments and their effects on liquidity
and volatility. Another major innovation in market structure was the advent of the euro
currency in January 1999. The power and presence of a financially-combined Europe
attracted new international investment, therefore influencing liquidity. The combination of
this influx of investors and new products (including CFDs and ETFs) can potentially have
wide market impacts. Understanding the structural changes of liquidity in Europe in recent
years is important for macroprudential risk assessment, as sudden changes in conditions may
be indicative of current stress and a signal of future stress. Chapter four presents a Europeanspecific
liquidity measure used by several central banks, and provides some new
modifications to this measure. The measure is constructed by combining several facets of
liquidity and depth measurement across several asset markets. It attempts to incorporate
aspects such as market tightness, depth and resiliency. The flows and the direction of
causality can also be inferred using vector autoregression, Granger causality techniques and
impulse response functions. The measure uses a combination of liquidity determinants
including the bid-ask spread, the return to volume ratio and numerous measures of liquidity
premia. In the chapter, the modified liquidity measure is applied empirically to European-area
data.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) |
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Keywords: | new derivative introduction; exchange volatility; efficiency; liquidity; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting |
Item ID: | 4214 |
Depositing User: | IR eTheses |
Date Deposited: | 20 Feb 2013 14:44 |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/4214 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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