Flavin, Thomas, Panopoulou, Ekaterini and Pantelidis, Theologos (2009) Forecasting Growth and Inflation in an Enlarged Euro Area. Journal of Forecasting, 28. pp. 405-435. ISSN 0277-6693
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Abstract
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro
area. Forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single-equation
models. The analysis is undertaken for both individual countries and EU aggregate
variables. Aggregate forecasts are constructed by both employing aggregate
variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. Using financial
variables for country-specific forecasts tends to add little to the predictive
ability of a simple AR model. However, they do help to predict EU aggregates.
Furthermore, forecasts from pooling individual country models usually outperform
those of the aggregate itself, particularly for the EU25 grouping. This is
particularly interesting from the perspective of the European Central Bank, who
require forecasts of economic activity and inflation to formulate appropriate
economic policy across the enlarged group.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | forecasting; financial variables; growth; inflation; aggregation; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting |
Item ID: | 8009 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/for.1117 |
Depositing User: | Thomas Flavin |
Date Deposited: | 08 Mar 2017 15:17 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Forecasting |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/8009 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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