Comiskey, Hannah and Alkema, Leontine and Cahill, Niamh (2024) Estimating the proportion of modern contraceptives supplied by the public and private sectors using a Bayesian hierarchical penalized spline model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. ISSN 0964-1998

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Abstract

Quantifying the public/private-sector supply of contraceptive methods within countries is vital for effective and sustainable family-planning delivery. However, many low- and middle-income countries quantify contraceptive supply using out-of-date Demographic Health Surveys. As an alternative, we propose using a Bayesian, hierarchical, penalized-spline model, with survey input, to produce annual estimates and projections of contraceptive supply-share outcomes. Our approach shares information across countries, accounts for survey observational errors and produces probabilistic projections informed by past changes in supply shares, as well as correlations between supply-share changes across different contraceptive methods. Results may be used to evaluate family-planning program effectiveness and stability.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Bayesian; correlation; family planning; hierarchical; splines; time-series;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute
Item ID:	18657
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae051
Depositing User:	Niamh Cahill
Date Deposited:	13 Jun 2024 11:33
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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