Upton, Maeve and Parnell, Andrew and Kemp, Andrew and Ashe, Erica and McCarthy, Gerard and Cahill, Niamh (2024) A noisy-input generalized additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. ISSN 0035-9254

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Abstract

We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial–temporal generalized additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial– temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results highlight the decomposition of regional RSL changes over 3,000 years along North America’s Atlantic coast. The physical process glacial isostatic adjustment prevailed before 1800 CE, with anthropogenic forcing dominating after 1900 CE.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Bayesian; sea level; generalized additive models; uncertainty;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	18914
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlae044
Depositing User:	Andrew Parnell
Date Deposited:	24 Sep 2024 08:36
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
Publisher:	The Royal Statistical Society
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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