Parnell, Andrew, Haslett, John, Sweeney, James, Doan, Thinh K, Allen, Judy R. M. and Huntley, Brian (2016) Joint palaeoclimate reconstruction from pollen data via forward models and climate histories. Quaternary Science Reviews, 151 (2016). pp. 1-30. ISSN 0277-3791
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Abstract
We present a method and software for reconstructing palaeoclimate from pollen
data with a focus on accounting for and reducing uncertainty. The tools we use include:
forward models, which enable us to account for the data generating process and hence the
complex relationship between pollen and climate; joint inference, which reduces uncertainty
by borrowing strength between aspects of climate and slices of the core; and dynamic climate
histories, which allow for a far richer gamut of inferential possibilities. Through a Monte
Carlo approach we generate numerous equally probable joint climate histories, each of which
is represented by a sequence of values of three climate dimensions in discrete time, i.e. a
multivariate time series. All histories are consistent with the uncertainties in the forward
model and the natural temporal variability in climate. Once generated, these histories can
provide most probable climate estimates with uncertainty intervals. This is particularly
important as attention moves to the dynamics of past climate changes. For example, such
methods allow us to identify, with realistic uncertainty, the past century that exhibited the
greatest warming. We illustrate our method with two data sets: Laguna de la Roya, with a
radiocarbon dated chronology and hence timing uncertainty; and Lago Grande di Monticchio, which contains laminated sediment and extends back to the penultimate glacial stage.
The procedure is made available via an open source R package, Bclim, for which we provide
code and instructions.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Joint; palaeoclimate; reconstruction; pollen data; forward models; climate histories; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 19092 |
Depositing User: | Andrew Parnell |
Date Deposited: | 29 Oct 2024 10:41 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Quaternary Science Reviews |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/19092 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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