Article

Upton, Maeve and Parnell, Andrew and Kemp, Andrew and Ashe, Erica and McCarthy, Gerard and Cahill, Niamh (2024) A noisy-input generalized additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. ISSN 0035-9254

Daly, Eoghan and Nolan, Glenn and Berry, Alan and Büscher, Janina V. and Cave, Rachel R. and Caesar, Levke and Cronin, Margot and Fennell, Sheena and Lyons, Kieran and McAleer, Aedín and McCarthy, Gerard and McGovern, Evin and McGovern, Joseph V. and McGrath, Triona and O'Donnell, Garvan and Pereiro, Diego and Thomas, Rob and Vaughan, Louise and White, Martin and Cusack, Caroline (2024) Diurnal to interannual variability in the Northeast Atlantic from hydrographic transects and fixed time-series across the Rockall Trough. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 204. p. 104233. ISSN 09670637

McCarthy, Gerard and Plecha, Sandra and Charria, Guillaume and Simon, Amélie and Poppeschi, Coline and Russo, Ana (2023) The marine heatwave west of Ireland in June 2023. Weather, 78 (11). pp. 321-323. ISSN 0043-1656

McCarthy, Gerard and Caesar, Levke (2023) Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 381 (2262). ISSN 1471-2962

McCarthy, Gerard and Burmeister, K and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Düsterhus, A. and Williams, Frajka and Graham, J. A. and Hodge, K. R. and Holliday, N. Penny and Jackson, Inall M. and Menary, M. B. and Moat, B. I. and Moffa-Sánchez, Paola and Oltmanns, M and Polton, J. A. and Rabe, B. and Robson, J. and Thornalley, D. J. R. (2023) Climate change impacts on ocean circulation relevant to the UK and Ireland. MCCIP Science Review. pp. 1-29.

Shoari Nejad, Amin and Parnell, Andrew and Greene, Alice and Thorne, Peter and Kelleher, Brian P. and Devoy, Robert J. N. and McCarthy, Gerard (2022) A newly reconciled dataset for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay. Ocean Science, 18 (2). pp. 511-522. ISSN 1812-0792

Michel, Simon L. L. and Swingedouw, Didier and Ortega, Pablo and Gastineau, Guillaume and Mignot, Juliette and McCarthy, Gerard and Khodri, Myriam (2022) Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. Nature Communications, 13 (5176). pp. 1-14. ISSN 2041-1723

Caínzos, V. and Hernández-Guerra, A. and McCarthy, Gerard and McDonagh, E.L. and Cubas Armas, M. and Perez-Hernandez, M.D. (2022) Thirty Years of GOSHIP and WOCE Data: Atlantic Overturning of Mass, Heat, and Freshwater Transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (e2021G). ISSN 0094-8276

Hallam, Samantha and Josey, Simon A. and McCarthy, Gerard and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. (2022) A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894

Harris, Elizabeth A. and Marsh, Robert and Grist, Jeremy. P. and McCarthy, Gerard (2022) The water mass transformation framework and variability in hurricane activity. Climate Dynamics, 59 (3-4). pp. 961-972. ISSN 0930-7575

Worthington, Emma and Moat, Ben I. and Smeed, David A. and Mecking, J. V. and Marsh, Robert and McCarthy, Gerard (2021) A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline. Ocean Science, 17. pp. 285-299.

Berx, Barbara and Volkov, Denis and Baehr, Johanna and Baringer, Molly and Brandt, Peter and Burmeister, Kristin and Cunningham, Stuart and de Jong, Marieke and de Steur, Laura and Dong, Shenfu and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Goni, Gustavo and Holliday, Penny and Hummels, Rebecca and Ingvaldsen, Randi and Jochumsen, Kerstin and Johns, William and Jónsson, Steingrimur and Karstensen, Johannes and Kieke, Dagmar and Krishfield, Richard and Lankhorst, Matthias and Larsen, Karin and Le Bras, Isabela and Lee, Craig and Li, Feili and Lozier, Susan and Macrander, Andreas and McCarthy, Gerard and Mertens, Christian and Moat, Ben and Moritz, Martin and Perez, Renellys and Polyakov, Igor and Proshutinsky, Andrey and Rabe, Berit and Rhein, Monika and Schmid, Claudia and Skagseth, Øystein and Smeed, David and Timmermans, Mary-Louise and von Appen, Wilken-Jon and Williams, Bill and Woodgate, Rebecca and Yashayaev, Igor (2021) Climate-Relevant Ocean Transport Measurements in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Oceanography. pp. 10-11. ISSN 1042-8275

Caesar, Levke and McCarthy, Gerard and Thornalley, D.J.R. and Cahill, Niamh and Rahmstorf, Stefan (2021) Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium. Nature Geoscience, 14. pp. 118-120. ISSN 1752-0894

Dempsey, Rebecca and Parnell, Andrew and McCarron, Pádraig and McCarthy, Gerard (2021) Excess Mortality in Dublin during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Using RIP.ie as a geographical source. Irish Geography, 53 (2). ISSN 0075-0778

Pugh, David and Bridge, Edmund and Edwards, Robin J. and Hogarth, Peter and Westbrook, Guy and Woodworth, P. L. and McCarthy, Gerard (2021) Mean sea level and tidal change in Ireland since 1842: a case study of Cork. Ocean Science, 17. pp. 1623-1637. ISSN 1812-0784

Diabaté, Samuel Tiéfolo and Swingedouw, Didier and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. and Duchez, Aurélie and Leadbitter, Philip J. and Haigh, Ivan D. and McCarthy, Gerard (2021) Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans. Ocean Science, 17. pp. 1449-1471. ISSN 1812-0784

McCarthy, Gerard and Dempsey, Rebecca and Parnell, Andrew and MacCarron, Pádraig (2020) Just a 'bad flu'? How death notices debunk that Covid-19 myth. RTE news Brainstorm 28/09/2020.

McCarthy, Gerard and MacCarron, Pádraig (2020) What death notices tell us about the coronavirus across Ireland. RTE news Brainstorm 7/05/2020.

McCarthy, Gerard and Jackson, L.C. and Cunningham, S.A. and Holiday, N.P. and Smeed, D.A. and Stevens, D.P. (2020) Effects of climate change on the Atlantic Heat Conveyor relevant to the UK. Marine Climate change Impact partnership. pp. 190-207.

Bryden, Harry L. and Johns, William E. and King, Brian A. and McCarthy, Gerard and McDonagh, Elaine L. and Moat, Bengamin I. and Smeed, David A. (2020) Reduction in Ocean Heat Transport at 26°N since 2008 Cools the Eastern Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 33. pp. 1677-1689. ISSN 0894-8755

McCarthy, Gerard and Brown, P. J. and Flagg, C. N. and Goni, G. and Houpert, L. and Hughes, C. W. and Hummels, R. and Inall, M. and Jochumsen, K. and Larsen, K. M. H. and Lherminier, P. and Meinen, C. S. and Moat, B. I. and Rayner, D. and Rhein, M. and Roessler, A. and Schmid, C. and Smeed, D. A. (2020) Sustainable Observations of the AMOC: Methodology and Technology. Reviews of Geophysics, 58 (1). ISSN 8755-1209

Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Ansorge, Isabelle J. and Baehr, Johanna and Bryden, Harry L. and Chidichimo, Maria Paz and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Dong, Shenfu and Donohue, Kathleen A. and Elipot, Shane and Heimbach, Patrick and Holliday, N. Penny and Hummels, Rebecca and Jackson, Laura C. and Karstensen, Johannes and Lankhorst, Mathhias and Le Bras, Isabela A. and Lozier, Susan and McDonagh, Elaine L. and Meinen, Christopher S. and Mercier, Herlé and Moat, Bengamin I. and Perez, Renellys C. and Piecuch, Christopher G. and Rhein, Monica and Srokosz, Meric A. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Bacon, Sheldon and Forget, Gael and Goni, Gustavo and Kieke, Dagmar and Koelling, Jannes and Lamont, Tarron and McCarthy, Gerard and Mertens, Christian and Send, Uwe and Smeed, David A. and Speich, Sabrina and van den Berg, Marcel and Volkov, Denis and Wilson, Chris (2019) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Observed Transport and Variability. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6. p. 260. ISSN 2296-7745

Murphy, Conor and Wilby, Robert L. and Matthews, Tom K.R. and Thorne, Peter and Broderick, Ciaran and Fealy, Rowan and Hall, Julia and Harrigan, Shaun and Jones, Phil D. and McCarthy, Gerard and MacDonald, Neil and Noone, Simon and Ryan, Ciara (2019) Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records. International Journal of Climatology, 40. pp. 610-619. ISSN 0899-8418

Moat, B.I. and Sinha, B. and Josey, Simon A. and Robson, J. and Ortega, P. and Sévellec, F. and Holliday, N.P. and McCarthy, Gerard and New, A.L. and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. (2019) Insights into decadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and ocean heat content variability from an eddy-permitting coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 32 (18). pp. 6137-6161. ISSN 0894-8755

Little, Christopher M and Hu, Aixue and Hughes, Chris W. and McCarthy, Gerard and Piecuch, Christopher G. and Ponte, Rui M. and Thomas, Matthew D. (2019) The Relationship between United States East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a Review. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124 (1). pp. 6435-6438. ISSN 2169-9291

Worthington, Emma and Frajka‐Williams, Eleanor and McCarthy, Gerard (2018) Estimating the Deep Overturning Transport Variability at 26°N Using Bottom Pressure Recorders. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124 (1). pp. 335-348. ISSN 2169-9291

McCarthy, Gerard and Joyce, Terrence M. and Josey, Simon A. (2018) Gulf Stream Variability in the Context of Quasi‐Decadal and Multidecadal Atlantic Climate Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (20). 11,257-11,264. ISSN 0094-8276

Robson, Jon and Sutton, Rowan T and Archibald, Alex and Cooper, Fenwick and Christensen, Matthew and Gray, Lesley J. and Holliday, N. Penny and Macintosh, Claire and McMillan, Malcom and Moat, Ben and Russo, Maria and Tilling, Rachel and Carslaw, Ken and Desbruyères, Damien and Embury, Owen and Feltham, Daniel L. and Grosvenor, Daniel P. and Josey, Simon and King, Brian and Lewis, Alistair and McCarthy, Gerard and Merchant, Chris and New, Adrian L. and O'Reilly, Christopher H. and Osprey, Scott M. and Readhead, Katie and Scaife, Adam A. and Shepherd, Andrew and Sinha, Bablu and Smeed, David A. and Smith, Doug and Ridout, Andrew and Woolings, Tim and Yang, Mingxi (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005–2016. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (14). pp. 5050-5076. ISSN 1097-0088

Sutton, R.T. and McCarthy, Gerard and Robson, James and Sinha, B. and Archibald, A. and Gray, L.J. (2018) Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and the UK ACSIS programme. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99. pp. 415-426. ISSN 1520-0477

Smeed, David A. and Josey, S.A. and Beaulieu, Claudie and Johns, W.E. and Moat, Ben I. and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Rayner, Darren and Meinen, Christopher S. and Baringer, Molly O. and Bryden, Harry L. and McCarthy, Gerard (2018) The North Atlantic Ocean is in a state of reduced overturning. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (3). pp. 1527-1533. ISSN 0094-8276

Murphy, Conor and Broderick, Ciaran and Burt, Timothy P. and Curley, Mary and Duffy, Catriona and Hall, Julia and Harrigan, Shaun and Matthews, Tom K.R. and Mcdonald, Neil and McCarthy, Gerard and McCarthy, Mark P. and Mullan, Donal and Noone, Simon and Osborn, Timothy J. and Ryan, Ciara and Sweeney, John and Thorne, Peter and Walsh, Seamus and Wilby, Robert L. (2018) A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016). Climate of the Past, 14. pp. 413-440. ISSN 1814-9332

Sutton, R.T. and McCarthy, Gerard and Robson, J. and Sinha, B. and Archibald, A. and Gray, L.J. (2018) Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). pp. 415-425. ISSN 0003-0007

McCarthy, Gerard and Thorne, Peter (2018) Atlantic slowdown boosts surface warming. Nature, 559. pp. 340-341. ISSN 1476-4687

Matthews, Tom K.R. and Murphy, Conor and McCarthy, Gerard and Broderick, Ciaran and Wilby, Robert L. (2018) Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (014024). ISSN 1748-9326

Sinha, Bablu and Smeed, David A. and McCarthy, Gerard and Moat, Bengamin I. and Josey, Simon A. and Hirschi, Joël J.M. and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Blaker, Adam T. and Rayner, Darren and Madec, Gurvan (2017) The accuracy of estimates of the overturning circulation from basin-wide mooring arrays. Progress in Oceanography, 160. pp. 101-123. ISSN 0079-6611

Baringer, M.O. and Smeed, D.A. and Willis, J. and Lankhorst, M. and Hobbs, W.R. and Dong, S. and McCarthy, Gerard and Rayner, D. and Johns, W.E. and Goni, G. (2017) Global Oceans: Meridional overturning circulation observations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (8). pp. 84-87. ISSN 1520-0477

McCarthy, Gerard and Menary, M. B. and Mecking, J. V. and Moat, B. I. and Johns, W. E. and Andrews, B. and Rayner, D. and Smeed, D. A. (2017) The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122. pp. 1808-1826. ISSN 2169-9291

Duchez, Aurélie and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Josey, Simon A. and Evans, Dafydd G. and Grist, Jeremy P. and Marsh, Robert and McCarthy, Gerard and Sinha, Bablu and Berry, David I. and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. (2016) Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (7). 074004. ISSN 1748-9326

Moat, Bengamin I. and Josey, Simon and Sinha, Bablu and Blaker, Adam and Smeed, David A. and McCarthy, Gerard and Johns, William and Hirschi, Joel J.-M. and Frajka‐Williams, Eleanor and Rayner, Darren and Duchez, Aurelie and Coward, Andrew (2016) Major Variations in Subtropical North Atlantic Heat Transport at Short Timescales: Causes and Consequences. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). pp. 3237-3249. ISSN 2169-9291

Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Meinen, Christopher S. and Johns, W.E. and Smeed, David A. and Duchez, A. and Lawrence, A.J. and Cuthbertson, D.A. and McCarthy, Gerard and Bryden, H.L. and Baringer, M.O. and Moat, B. I. and Rayner, D. (2016) Compensation between meridional flow components of the Atlantic MOC at 26° N. Ocean Science, 12 (2). pp. 481-493. ISSN 1812-0784

McDonagh, Elaine L. and King, Brian A. and Bryden, Harry B. and Courtois, Peggy and Szuts, Zoltan and Baringer, Molly and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Atkinson, Chris and McCarthy, Gerard (2015) Continuous Estimate of Atlantic Oceanic Freshwater Flux at 26.5°N. Journal of Climate, 28. pp. 8888-8906. ISSN 0894-8755

Perez-Hernandez, M.D. and McCarthy, Gerard and Velez-Belchi, P. and Smeed, David A. and Fraile-Nuez, E. and Hernández‐Guerra, A. (2015) The Canary Basin contribution to the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120 (11). pp. 7237-7252. ISSN 2169-9291

McCarthy, Gerard and Gleeson, E. and Walsh, S. (2015) The influence of ocean variations on the climate of Ireland. Weather, 70 (8). pp. 242-245. ISSN 1477-8696

McCarthy, Gerard and Haigh, Ivan D. and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. and Grist, Jeremy P. and Smeed, David A. (2015) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations. Nature, 521. pp. 508-510. ISSN 1476-4687

Blaker, Adam T. and Hirschi, Joël J.-M. and McCarthy, Gerard and Sinha, Bablu and Taws, Sarah and Marsh, Robert and Coward, Andrew and de Cuevas, Beverly (2015) Historical analogues of the recent extreme minima observed in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N. Climate Dynamics, 44 (1-2). pp. 457-473. ISSN 1432-0894

McCarthy, Gerard and Smeed, David A. and Johns, William E. and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Moat, Bengamin I. and Rayner, Drren and Baringer, Molly O. and Meinen, Christopher S. and Collins, J. and Bryden, Harry L. (2015) Measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N. Progress in Oceanography, 103. pp. 91-111. ISSN 0079-6611

Duchez, Aurelie and Hirschi, Joel J.-M. and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Blaker, Adam T. and Bryden, H. L. and de Cuevas, Beverly and Atkinson, Chris P. and McCarthy, Gerard and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Rayner, Darren and Smeed, David A. and Mizielinski, M.S. (2014) A new index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N. Journal of Climate, 27. pp. 6439-6455. ISSN 0894-8755

Bryden, H.L. and King, Brian A. and McCarthy, Gerard and McDonagh, E.L. (2014) Impact of a 30% reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning during 2009–2010. Ocean Science, 10 (4). pp. 683-691. ISSN 1812-0784,

Smeed, David A. and McCarthy, Gerard and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Rayner, Darren and Johns, W. E. and Meinen, Christopher S. and Baringer, Molly O. and Moat, Bengamin I. and Duchez, A. and Bryden, H.L. (2014) Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012. Ocean Science, 10 (1). pp. 29-38. ISSN 1812-0784

Cunningham, Stuart A. and Roberts, Christopher D. and Frajka‐Williams, Eleanor and Johns, William E. and Hobbs, Will and Palmer, Matthew D. and Rayner, Darren and Smeed, David A. and McCarthy, Gerard (2013) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown cooled the subtropical ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (23). pp. 6202-6207. ISSN 0094-8276

Roberts, C.D. and Waters, J. and Peterson, K.A. and Palmer, M.D. and McCarthy, Gerard and Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Haines, K. and Lea, D.J. and Martin, M.J. and Storkey, D. and Blockley, E.W. and Zuo, H. (2013) Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (19). pp. 5164-5171. ISSN 0094-8276

McCarthy, Gerard and Frajka‐Williams, Eleanor and Johns, William E. and Baringer, Molly O. and Meinen, Christopher S. and Bryden, H.L. and Rayner, Darren and Duchez, A. and Roberts, C. and Cunningham, Stuart A. (2012) Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (19). L19609. ISSN 0094-8276

McCarthy, Gerard and King, B.A. and Cipollini, P. and McDonagh, E.L. and Blundell, J.R. and Biastoch, Arne (2012) On the sub‐decadal variability of South Atlantic Antarctic Intermediate Water. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (10). L10605. ISSN 0094-8276

Bryden, Harry L. and King, Brian A. and McCarthy, Gerard (2011) South Atlantic overturning circulation at 24°S. Journal of Marine Research, 69 (1). pp. 38-55. ISSN 0022-2402

McCarthy, Gerard and McDonagh, Elaine and King, Brian (2011) Decadal variability of thermocline and intermediate waters at 24 S in the South Atlantic. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 41 (1). pp. 157-165. ISSN 0022-3670

Monograph

Clarke, B and Thorne, Peter and Ryan, Ciara and Zachariah, Mariam and Murphy, Conor and McCarthy, Gerard and O'Connor, Paul and Eresanya, Emmanuel. O and Cahill, Niamh and Coonan, Barry (2024) Climate change made the extreme 2-day rainfall event associated with flooding in Midleton, Ireland more likely and more intense. Technical Report. Imperial College London, London.

Daly, E. and McCarthy, Gerard and Ulthaman, A. (2023) Irish Ocean Climate and Ecosystem Status Report 2023. Chapter 03: Physical Oceanography. Technical Report. Marine Institute, Dublin.

Beckers, Jean-Marie and Hansen, Bogi and Uotila, Petteri and Duplessy, Jean-Claude and Deshayes, Julie and Visbeck, Martin and Dias, Frederic and McCarthy, Gerard and van Sebille, Erik and Eldevik, Tor and Smedsrud, Lars H. and Balino, Beatriz and Asbjørnsen, Helene and Cabral, Henrique and Estrada Miyare, Marta and Anderson, Leif G. and Palmer, Tim and Walløe, Lars and Norton, Michael (2021) A sea of change: Europe's future in the Atlantic realm. Technical Report. EASAC – the European Academies' Science Advisory Council, Germany.

McCarthy, Gerard and Smeed, David A. and Cunningham, Stuart A. and Roberts, Christopher D. (2017) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Project Report. Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership.